Jacek Bartosiak on Poland 2027: Revolution, Conscription, and the Economic and Security Challenges Ahead

Insights from Jacek Bartosiak’s Upcoming Book

According to ХВИЛЯ: In an exclusive interview, Jacek Bartosiak reveals key themes from his forthcoming book, scheduled for release in February 2027 under the working title "On Revolution and Hope." The book explores Poland’s development strategy, focusing on the contentious issues of military conscription, defense reforms, and the state of the nation’s economy. Bartosiak examines the influence of foreign capital, the role of the middle class, and the potential ramifications of ongoing war and economic crises on Polish society and politics.

Ongoing Debates on Conscription and Military Reform

Poland is currently engaged in heated discussions about reintroducing compulsory military service or national defense training. Bartosiak argues that

"society will only accept conscription if a revolution of the kind I describe takes place."

Although Poland’s military budget exceeds 5% of GDP, the author contends that

"we have prepared for the wrong kind of war."

As a member of NATO and the EU, Poland’s security heavily relies on these alliances and the United States.

Bartosiak also highlights the country’s economic paradox, stating that "we are effectively tenants in our own land." The public sector employs 23% of the workforce and accounts for 52% of GDP consumption, while the private sector has minimal political influence. Foreign capital dominates Polish industry and accumulates wealth, especially as EU financial transfers have nearly ceased, complicating the economic outlook.

There is a clear divide between the state sector and the private middle class within Polish society. Bartosiak envisions the possibility of establishing a parallel military-industrial complex driven by private enterprises. However, foreign investors and entrenched political interests resist such reforms. He stresses,

"No taxation without representation. No conscription without our consent."

The author believes that significant change in Poland is unlikely without a major crisis or conflict. Albert Świdziński adds, "I don’t think it’s possible to break the existing consensus without a catastrophe to enable these reforms." Proposed changes include military restructuring, deregulation, and shifting the balance of political and economic power.

Against the backdrop of globalization, Poland faces a strategic choice between deepening ties with China or continuing its partnership within the European Union. The war in Ukraine has opened new opportunities in defense technology and companies, potentially shaping Poland’s economic future.

Bartosiak’s analysis extends beyond Poland’s internal challenges to the broader geopolitical shifts that could impact the country’s stability and growth. With foreign capital influence and conscription debates becoming increasingly urgent amid global pressures, Poland must navigate a delicate balance between external dependencies and internal reforms. As a key NATO and EU member, Poland’s ability to secure its future depends on successfully managing these complex dynamics.