What will the dollar exchange rate be at the beginning of December 2025

At the beginning of December, the foreign exchange market of Ukraine remains under pressure from internal and external factors; however, the National Bank continues to maintain the situation under control regarding the dollar exchange rate. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine.

According to the director of the financial markets and investment activities department at Globus Bank, Taras Lesovyi, the main risks for the hryvnia are the slowdown in economic activity and rising prices caused by problems in the energy sector. Additional pressure is created by the seasonal increase in demand for cash currency at the end of the year. 

«Businesses and the population are increasingly making settlements in hryvnias, which intensifies pressure on the exchange rate,» the expert explains.

Dollar exchange rate in December 2025

Lesovyi emphasizes that political uncertainty and the issue of further international support in 2026 also affect sentiment. An additional factor is the situation at the front, which «only intensifies this sentiment.» Despite this, the NBU intervenes if necessary, buying or selling currency, thus setting the direction of the exchange rate movement. A stable discount rate supports interest in deposits and restrains inflationary pressure. According to the banker’s estimates, inflation may decrease to 9.2–9.5% by the end of the year, and the dollar may remain below 43 hryvnias.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for December 1-7, 2025

The expert expects that from December 1 to 7, the dollar on the interbank market will fluctuate within 42.2–42.7 UAH, while the euro will be 48–49.75 UAH. The forecast for the cash market is almost identical: 42.3–42.8 UAH for the dollar and 48–49.75 UAH for the euro.

Key expected indicators for this period:

• daily fluctuations: up to 5–15 kopecks on the interbank market, up to 10–20 kopecks in banks, up to 30 kopecks in exchanges

• spread in banks: up to 50–60 kopecks for the dollar, up to 80 kopecks–1 UAH for the euro

• spread in exchanges: up to 60 kopecks–1 UAH for the dollar, up to 1–1.3 UAH for the euro

• difference between cash and non-cash rates: 10–15 kopecks

• weekly deviation: no more than 1–1.5%/

Earlier we wrote that the dollar exchange rate will rise in Ukraine to 45 UAH.