2025: Geopolitical Turn, Corruption Scandals, and New Realities of War in Ukraine
According to the results of 2025 presented by the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, the main geopolitical factor was Donald Trump's victory in the US elections. His administration took a course towards a rapid end to the war and ceased direct military and financial assistance to Ukraine. This significantly impacted the situation on the front: Russian troops captured 4300 km² of territory over the year, which is considerably more than in 2024. The largest advances took place in:
- Huliaipilske
- Pokrovsk
- Severodonetsk
- Sumy
At the same time, as expert Oleg Starykov notes,
“the top cannot formulate the goals, the political goals of the war, while the bottom does not want to mobilize”.
Domestic Political Situation in Ukraine
The domestic political situation in Ukraine remained tense. After the corruption scandal surrounding the Mindych case in the energy sector, President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the head of the President's Office Andriy Yermak. Society demonstrates a consistent demand for peace: between 69% and 82% of Ukrainians support ending hostilities through negotiations, although 75% are categorically against the Russian peace plan. Trust in the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains the highest (94%), while trust in TCC is the lowest (24%).