Ukraine is entering a period of post-war reconstruction with a severe labor shortage. Currently, about 5 million people are actually employed in the labor market, while the number of retirees reaches 9-10 million. This is reported by the Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies.
The organization's president, Vasyl Voskoboynyk, noted that this demographic situation creates serious pressure on the economy and social system.
«This means that there is one worker for every two retirees. Not a pretty number, to put it mildly», — explained the expert.
Ukraine's labor market: labor shortage after the war
According to Vasyl Voskoboynyk, after the end of the war, Ukraine will face the necessity to finance social expenses independently. Currently, part of the burden is covered by international partners and donors.
In the future, the state may face difficult decisions:
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increasing the tax burden
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large-scale economic reforms.
Reconstructing the country will pose a separate challenge. For stable economic growth, Ukraine will need millions of new workers.
Rebuilding Ukraine will require millions of workers
According to estimates from the Ministry of Economy, to achieve economic growth of 7% per year, the country will need several million additional workers. Meanwhile, the International Labour Organization estimates the need for 8-8.6 million working hands.
«Money and technology partners can provide. But the question is — where will we get the people?» — emphasized Voskoboynyk.
Among potential internal reserves, the expert mentions:
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more active employment of people with disabilities
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overcoming age discrimination in the labor market
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involving older workers
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expanding opportunities for women in traditionally «male» professions
At the same time, the demographic situation remains complicated. Over the last decade, Ukraine’s population has been shrinking by approximately 300 thousand people each year. If this trend continues, over the next ten years, the country may lose another three million people.
The expert emphasizes that without a sufficient number of workers, large-scale reconstruction plans may remain unrealized.
Recall that in December 2023, Ukrainian officials held a closed meeting in New York with top managers of BlackRock, discussing the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, estimated at 800 billion dollars. BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, is once again involved in developing an investment attraction strategy for this large-scale project. However, despite initial plans, the situation has changed, and the reconstruction project has been frozen.