Since the beginning of the full-scale war, about 5.6 million people have left Ukraine. At the same time, the return process continues, but without mass character. According to the International Organization for Migration, approximately 100,000 people return to Ukraine every six months, and this figure has remained stable since the autumn of 2023. Overall, since the years of the war, more than 1.1 million Ukrainians have returned home. This is reported by the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment.
Experts note that the willingness of Ukrainians to return is gradually decreasing. Sociological surveys indicate a decrease in the share of those planning to return, while demographers speak of the absence of preconditions for a new wave of mass arrivals.
Who exactly among Ukrainians returns home
Studies show that individual people return to Ukraine more often than entire families. Among those who decide to return, the share of people aged 60+ and individuals with disabilities is growing, while there are fewer families with children.
Most often, the following categories return home:
- elderly people
- individuals with disabilities
- Ukrainians who have lost social support abroad
As of August 2024, only 5% of Ukrainian refugees in European countries planned to return within a year, according to an IOM report.
Why Ukrainians make different decisions
Decisions about returning are significantly influenced by the conditions in specific countries. Important factors include the level of social support, employment opportunities, and integration.
The head of the NGO “Migration Policy Office” and president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment, Vasyl Voskoboinyk, explains that the approaches of EU countries differ significantly. According to him, Germany emphasizes social benefits and housing, while Poland encourages legalization, employment, and self-sufficiency. These differences shape the various migration trajectories of Ukrainians.
At the same time, the security situation remains a key factor. Active hostilities and shelling force people to postpone their return or leave for abroad again. Experts emphasize that stable but small returns do not compensate for Ukraine's demographic and labor losses.
Earlier we wrote that Ukraine will not have enough people for post-war reconstruction, according to expert Voskoboinyk.