KeyBanc's Outlook on Apple's Upcoming iPhone Releases
Investment firm KeyBanc anticipates that Apple’s event on September 9, introducing new iPhone models, could trigger a sustained drop in the company’s stock. This is due to the shift toward premium devices and the absence of a basic model in the initial lineup. Apple intends to launch the foldable iPhone Ultra alongside only high-end models, while the standard iPhone 18 won’t be available before spring 2027.
Production Cuts and Price Adjustments for New iPhones
Apple plans to manufacture 80 million smartphones across its fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, representing a reduction of 11 million units compared to the previous year. Pricing for the new releases will also change significantly:
- The iPhone 18 Pro is expected to increase by $150, reaching $1,249;
- The iPhone 18 Pro Max will rise by $200, priced at $1,399;
- The new iPhone Ultra will start at $2,199.
KeyBanc projects Apple’s stock target at $250, contrasting with today’s market price of $329.97. Historically, the holiday quarter following a Pro model launch accounts for over 80% of iPhone sales. More affordable iPhone versions are forecasted for release in February next year. Meanwhile, a global shortage of RAM and flash memory components could disrupt production schedules.
This strategy marks a clear pivot by Apple toward premium offerings, which might alienate price-sensitive customers seeking budget-friendly options. Given current component shortages, monitoring market responses to these launches is crucial, as declining stock values could reflect missed opportunities to attract new buyers. The anticipated introduction of a budget-friendly iPhone 18e in spring 2027 may be a key move to regain ground in the lower-cost smartphone segment.