War Analysis: Ukraine vs. Russia
Major General Mick Ryan, a former Australian army officer with over three decades of service, offered his assessment of the ongoing conflict during an interview with Frontline at the Chalke History Festival. Now a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute and a visiting expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Ryan is also the author of 'War for Ukraine.' His analysis covered Ukraine's strike on Moscow's largest oil refinery, the campaign to isolate Crimea, and the rapid evolution of drone technology.
A central point in his remarks was the remarkable progress made by Ukrainian forces over the last five years. Ryan described their development of a long-range strike capability as a defining achievement of modern warfare.
“So the long-range strike of the 21st century has truly come of age—and just five years ago, Ukraine simply didn't have it,” he noted.He also highlighted how drone technology, refined over the past eighteen months, has become a critical asset.
“It multiplies the effectiveness of every soldier on the battlefield,” he added.
The Crimea Situation
Regarding the theater around Crimea, the general pointed to Ukrainian successes near the Kerch Bridge. He explained that coordinated swarm attacks have helped create a fuel shortage in the region. Ryan also observed that the Russian military, as of 2026, is failing to show strong offensive capabilities:
“The Russian army in 2026 simply isn't demonstrating a high offensive capacity.”
Ryan urged Western nations to pay closer attention to the lessons emerging from Ukraine. He warned against complacency, stating,
“This arrogance will come back to bite us, because every conclusion drawn from Ukraine is important.”He labeled the dismissal of these insights as 'the height of intellectual arrogance' and stressed that 'we cannot allow such a mistake to happen again.'
Ryan's conclusions on the conflict and drone innovation could shape future international security strategies. The adoption of advanced military tools, particularly drones, is proving decisive in modern warfare, and Ukraine's battlefield experience offers valuable lessons for other nations. This analysis may encourage the global community to more closely examine Ukraine's approach, potentially influencing security planning and military doctrine worldwide.
As the conflict evolves, the strategic use of drone technology has emerged as a game changer for Ukraine. For an in-depth look at how these advancements are reshaping modern warfare, explore how Ukraine has transformed drone combat and what lessons can be learned from their innovative approaches.