Business Expectations Index on the Rise
A survey of 665 companies conducted in the second quarter of 2026 revealed that the Business Expectations Index (BEI) climbed to 107.0%. This jump reflects more optimistic assessments from firms regarding their production volumes. Compared to the first quarter of 2026, when the BEI stood at 105.8%, enterprises are now reporting stronger positive trends in their forecasts.
Inflation and Currency Rate Projections
Expected inflation over the next year edged up to 11.6%, a slight increase from the previous survey's reading of 11.1%. At the same time, respondents anticipate an exchange rate of 46.12 UAH per US dollar and 54.42 UAH per euro. For context, in the first quarter of 2026, the expected rates were 45.00 UAH per dollar and 54.00 UAH per euro.
According to the survey, 80.8% of respondents plan to take out loans in hryvnia. Positive expectations were reported by enterprises in the following sectors:
- agriculture
- energy and water supply
- construction
- transport and communications
- processing industry
- other types of activity
Construction firms emerged as the most optimistic, while mining companies were the most cautious.
Only agricultural enterprises and those in other types of activity expect to increase their workforce. In contrast, the largest reductions in employee numbers are anticipated in the processing industry. Survey participants also expressed hopes for higher sales volumes, a more vigorous increase in capital spending on machinery, equipment, and inventory, as well as a more moderate rise in foreign investment inflows.
The rise in the Business Expectations Index points to growing optimism among companies, which could signal a stabilization of the economic situation.
Source: Enterprise Survey
Despite the uptick in expected inflation, a majority of businesses plan to borrow more actively, a move that could spur production-related investments. Notably, the diverging employment forecasts highlight the uneven economic prospects across sectors—for instance, the expected job cuts in the processing industry may serve as a warning sign, calling for targeted policy support in that field.