Ukraine is entering the winter season with a risk of diesel fuel shortages, and this issue has been developing since autumn. Import supplies have fallen, there is no domestic production, and the market is facing competition for limited volumes. This is reported by the director of the consulting company A-95, Serhii Kuiun.
Diesel supply risks in winter 2026
Analysts note that the deficit began forming after the final shutdown of the Kremenchuk oil refinery and the ban on imports from Romanian Constanța. Already in October, Ukraine lacked more than 90 thousand tons of diesel, and some gas stations reported that they could not purchase fuel on certain days.
The situation was complicated by several parallel factors:
- Disruptions at the Hungarian MOL refinery, which sharply reduced supplies.
- Repairs at the Lithuanian «Orlen Lietuva» that lasted all October.
- Weather restrictions for river logistics.
- The cessation of Indian fuel imports to the EU.
- Pressure on the Romanian market due to American sanctions against Russian companies.
Meanwhile, the Serbian market, which lost its own capacities, is actively taking resources from Constanța, intensifying competition with Ukrainian traders. MOL is also buying additional batches from «Orlen», which reduces the volumes available to Ukraine.
Diesel prices: what is happening in the market
In hryvnia terms, diesel in Europe has risen by about 6 UAH per liter since October, and this jump has been repeated in the Ukrainian wholesale market. At gas stations, the price has increased by at least 2 UAH per liter, and the potential for an additional increase of 2–3 UAH still remains.
The main concern is not the cost, but rather the volumes. Experts remind that in the conditions of 2022, the deficit was overcome thanks to market liberalization and the prioritization of fuel transport. Similar steps are now being proposed: speeding up border crossings for tanker trucks, launching simplified corridors, activating the work of Ukrzaliznytsia on the Polish route, and unfreezing certain railway branches to expedite the delivery of tankers.
Experts emphasize that the market is operating at its limits, and against the backdrop of attacks on energy facilities and fuel infrastructure, any delays or new restrictions could trigger a new wave of diesel problems.
Earlier, we named five reasons for the acute fuel crisis in Ukraine.