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Oil Prices Could Surge to $140: The Impact of the Iran Blockade

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U.S. Blockade Drives Oil Prices Higher

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has warned that oil prices could climb to $140 per barrel as a result of the U.S.-led blockade. He argues that the restrictions on Iranian crude exports are tightening global supply, intensifying market tensions. Brent crude has already jumped 8%, surpassing $120 per barrel—its highest level since June 2022.

Expert Opinions and Political Pressure

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that Iran’s oil production should be halted amid the export restrictions. However, Ghalibaf dismissed this idea, stating,

“Not a single well has exploded in three days. We can keep this up for 30 days and host a live broadcast.”
He added that advice like Bessent’s only fuels further price increases.

Ghalibaf also remarked,

“This is exactly the kind of advice the U.S. administration gets from people like Bessent, who push the blockade theory and have driven oil to $120+. The next stop is $140. The problem isn’t the theory itself—it’s the mindset behind it.”
The U.S. is currently analyzing possible conflict scenarios with Iran, weighing both de-escalation and continued military action.

Domestic political pressure in the U.S. is mounting, as public support for war remains low. Debates over the legitimacy of military operations are intensifying, and if established timelines are exceeded, further actions could fall outside legal boundaries. The naval blockade of Iran will only be lifted if Washington and Tehran reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.

The rise in oil prices and the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict could significantly impact global energy markets and the economies of many oil-importing nations. Amid growing tensions, both sides must find ways to de-escalate to avoid further economic fallout and reduce internal political pressure.

As tensions escalate, the U.S. naval blockade continues to exert pressure on Iran, with reports indicating that Iran's economy is facing severe challenges due to the interception of ships. This ongoing situation not only affects oil prices but also has far-reaching implications for the stability of the region and the global energy market.