The director of the consulting group 'A95', Serhiy Kuyun, stated during a briefing at the Media Studio Ukraine that, in the short term, fuel prices in Ukraine will not decrease due to the impact of the exchange rate and the unstable situation in global oil markets.
According to the expert, the exchange rate and the designation of the excise duty on fuel in euros significantly affect fuel price changes. About 80% of the fuel price consists of currency components, so fluctuations in the exchange rate have a strong impact on fuel prices at gas stations. In addition, the war in the Middle East also contributed to the price increase, even after the active hostilities ended and OPEC's attempts to increase oil production.
'All of this together creates a scenario that is nearly impossible to predict. When the price of oil fell to $65 per barrel, we expected that fuel prices would return to previous levels,' noted Kuyun.
Currently, due to high market volatility, short-term forecasts for fuel prices can be made. The markup on fuel at gas stations is minimal, but this may lead to price increases in the future since gas stations operate with minimal profitability. There is also an excess of fuel in the Ukrainian market amid reduced consumption.
The expert stated that further fuel price increases are expected in Ukraine due to the impact of the exchange rate and geopolitical situation in global oil markets. Despite attempts to lower prices, factors such as currency fluctuations and the war in the Middle East keep fuel prices at a high level.