The Regional Stakes in the South Caucasus and Turkey
During an interview with political scientist Yuriy Romanenko, analyst Tigran Avakyan argued that nations in the South Caucasus and Turkey are deliberately steering clear of direct confrontation with Iran. He warned that regional destabilization could trigger severe consequences for neighboring states like Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The South Caucasus is a historically volatile region where the interests of regional powers and global energy routes intersect.
Avakyan emphasized that an explosion of conflict in northern Iran could produce a massive refugee wave. Countries such as Armenia and Azerbaijan would be incapable of handling an influx of up to 10 million Shia refugees.
"If northern Iran erupts, neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan could withstand 10 million Shia refugees; Georgia couldn't handle it either," stated Tigran Avakyan.
Furthermore, he highlighted the threat to critical energy infrastructure, specifically the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which is vital to the regional economy. Avakyan noted that Iran could target this route, bringing economic activity in Georgia and Azerbaijan to a halt.
"Iran would no longer pay attention to Britain, which owns 37-40% of Azerbaijani oil there, and would simply strike the Baku-Ceyhan line, stopping everything," the analyst added.
The situation is further complicated, according to Avakyan, by the fact that the current leadership of the Aliyev clan in Azerbaijan has no interest in a conflict with Iran, as it would bring only problems.
- "The specific leadership of the current Aliyev clan is not interested in this, because besides problems, it would gain no benefits from fighting Iran," he stressed.
Consequently, South Caucasus countries and Turkey are striving to maintain regional stability, as any escalation could lead to significant humanitarian and economic fallout.
Geopolitical Interests and Cooperation
Given the current circumstances, it is crucial to consider that the geopolitical interests and internal challenges of South Caucasus nations compel them to avoid conflicts and seek avenues for cooperation. Amid regional tensions, such caution may serve as a guarantee of stability, even if it does not resolve the deep-seated issues existing between these states and their neighbors. According to forecasts, a further deterioration of the situation in Iran could substantially impact the security and economic development of the entire region.
As tensions in the South Caucasus escalate, understanding the dynamics of regional alliances becomes crucial. The resistance of Turkey and Azerbaijan to Western influence sheds light on their strategic calculations regarding Iran, highlighting the delicate balance these nations must maintain to avoid further destabilization.