The Structure of Power in Russia and the Impossibility of an Elite Revolt
During an interview with political scientist Yuriy Romanenko, historian and analyst Oleh Czeslawsky outlined the structure of power in Russia and the reasons an elite coup is impossible. He explained that President Vladimir Putin has secured the loyalty of his inner circle by granting them access to assets in occupied territories and lucrative military contracts.
Czeslawsky stressed that Russia's elites long ago ceased to be independent actors.
"In the system Putin built, the elite are not decision-makers but servants of the system. Those who disagreed have either left the country, been imprisoned, or eliminated. Those who remain are prepared to follow any order to keep their access to the 'trough',"he noted.
The analyst stated that for the Russian elite, Putin is the guarantor of their physical survival and the preservation of their capital within the country.
"Therefore, there will be no 'elite revolt' of the kind hoped for in the West, as long as the system continues to generate money,"Czeslawsky added. He also pointed out that Putin has enabled them to plunder occupied territories and secure massive military procurement orders.
Czeslawsky further emphasized that Russian elites perceive freedom as chaos. "For them, freedom is chaos; it's the 1990s, which they use to scare everyone. They genuinely believe, or at least project, that people need a 'master'. And they are trying to impose this idea on us," he stated. In his view, for Russians, Ukraine is a 'rebellious province' that must be brought back into the fold. "This cannot be resolved through negotiations. You can negotiate borders, but you cannot negotiate meanings," Czeslawsky underscored.
He also indicated that the Russian national myth is based on the conviction that Russia has the right to dictate how others should live, and that Ukraine's very existence shatters this myth. "As long as this myth persists in its current form, Russia will always seek to destroy Ukraine. For them, this is a religious, ideological question, not merely a political one," the historian concluded.
Democracy and Freedom in Ukraine
He summarized by saying that Ukraine demonstrates that it is possible to live differently, to be part of Western civilization, and to have democracy.
"Our success is their verdict. That is why they are willing to burn their own country, to destroy their own economy, just so we do not become an example for Russians themselves. They are not afraid of our tanks; they are afraid of our freedom,"stated Oleh Czeslawsky.
Czeslawsky's remarks highlight the complexity of the Russian political system, where loyalty to the president is foundational for elite survival. This analysis points to the deep isolation and fear among Russian elites regarding potential social changes that could be sparked by Ukraine's successes. In the context of war and global economic shifts, this dynamic could have serious implications for Russia's domestic politics and its relations with neighbors and the West. Understanding this internal logic is key to assessing the regime's stability and its long-term trajectory.