Population Data and Projections for Ukraine
Financial expert Oleksiy Kozirev has presented demographic data and population projections as part of a development strategy project extending to 2040. The current population in Ukraine's government-controlled territory has now fallen to approximately 30.5 million people. Between 2020 and 2023, the average life expectancy for men plummeted from 66.4 to 57.3 years, while for women it decreased from 76.2 to 70.9 years. This stark decline, particularly for men, creates a severe demographic and economic challenge for the nation's future.
The official retirement age for men is 65 years, while the fertility rate has dropped to roughly 1.2 children per woman. Notably, women constitute 53.6% of the population, and the current age structure reveals that:
- 15% are children,
- 67% are of working age,
- 18-20% are pensioners aged 65 and over.
As of today, pensioners already account for nearly 30% of the population.
Future Projections
At the start of its independence, Ukraine's population was nearly 50 million, later falling to 48 million. According to an optimistic scenario from the Institute of Demography, Ukraine could have around 30 million people by 2035. Meanwhile, a pessimistic forecast suggests the population may shrink to 25 million by 2051. The most radical scenario, proposed by Reuters, indicates a potential population decline to as low as 9 million.
This is a problem for Ukraine not only from the last three or four years of war, but from earlier.
Oleksiy Kozirev
Kozirev further noted that many who left the country 'over four years have already settled in—some with families, some having purchased property, some working actively.' The expert believes that 'this would be a not-so-pessimistic scenario, and I believe it won't happen, but from a mathematical standpoint, it is possible.' Additionally, Kozirev observed that 'without additional savings instruments, relying solely on the state pension is becoming increasingly risky.'
These demographic indicators point to serious consequences for Ukraine's economy, including a labor shortage, an aging society, and rising healthcare costs.
The demographic situation in Ukraine highlights significant challenges the country will face in the near future. Population decline and reduced life expectancy could lead to lower economic productivity and a deterioration in social welfare. In the context of war and its aftermath, these factors may complicate national recovery, underscoring the critical need for effective strategies to support the population and improve living conditions.