At the end of October, the dollar increased in some exchange offices to over 47 UAH, intensifying fluctuations of the exchange rate. As of November 4, the National Bank of Ukraine set the official rate at 45.66 UAH, while surveyed analysts do not expect a sharp devaluation by the end of the year. This is reported by Economic Truth.
Dollar rate: why there was a rush at the end of October 2026
In three working days, from October 23 to 28, the official rate increased from 45.05 to approximately 45.60 UAH. In the cash market, the reaction was stronger: in some points, dollars were sold for even 47.50 UAH.
The National Bank explained the movement of the rate by an increase in net demand for currency. At the beginning of October, the excess of demand over supply amounted to an average of $172 million per day, and at the end of the month, it rose to $230 million.
The main reasons for the pressure on the hryvnia were:
- Activation of budget payments. After the arrival of international aid, the government began to carry out previously deferred expenditures.
- Decrease in export earnings. Russian strikes on enterprises and logistics limit the sales of Ukrainian goods abroad.
- Strengthening of the dollar globally. Its appreciation against the euro also affects the Ukrainian market.
- Nervousness of currency buyers. Security risks increase demand and fluctuations in exchange offices.
International aid reaches the budget through the sale of currency by the National Bank. The government receives hryvnias and makes payments, part of which subsequently creates demand in the currency market. According to ICU analyst Taras Kotovych, on October 30 alone, net receipts from the budget to the banking system amounted to 64 billion UAH.
At the same time, export earnings for July to September decreased to $8.4 billion compared to $9.5 billion a year earlier. Thus, the increased demand coincided with a decrease in currency supply. Against this background, the NBU also decided to raise the discount rate to support hryvnia savings and curb inflation.
Dollar forecast: do analysts expect 50 UAH by the end of 2026
Surveyed experts believe that the National Bank has resources to curb sharp fluctuations. In the last week of October, the regulator sold about $1.82 billion, and in total for the month, nearly $6 billion.
At the beginning of October, international reserves amounted to $47.1 billion. According to NBU Deputy Chairman Yuri Geletiy, this was enough for about four months of future imports. The regulator's forecast envisions an increase in reserves to $62.8 billion by the end of the year due to expected inflows.
Dragon Capital expects the rate to be around 46 UAH per dollar by the end of 2026. This is the company’s forecast, which depends on the situation's development rather than being a guaranteed level or obligation of the NBU.
For currency buyers, it is important to compare the selling rate: it reflects what the bank or exchange office offers dollars to the client. For instance, a difference between 47.50 and 46.50 UAH means an additional 1000 UAH in expenses for purchasing $1000. This is a calculation for price comparison, excluding potential commissions.
Short-term quotes above 47 UAH do not by themselves indicate the approaching rate of 50 UAH. Previous dollar rate forecasts also illustrate how assessments depend on the timing of their preparation, international financing, and the export situation.