The Ukrainian Institute for the Future has published a forecast regarding the foreign exchange market, according to which in November the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar may exceed 42.5 UAH. Analysts note that this trend is related to changes in the NBU's monetary policy and the behavior of the euro in global markets. This is reported by Minfin.
Why the dollar may rise
According to experts, inflation in Ukraine is decreasing faster than expected. This creates conditions for correcting the exchange rate policy of the National Bank. The NBU is gradually moving away from the fixed exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar, transitioning to a model of moderate managed devaluation. This, in the opinion of analysts, will contribute to the strengthening of the dollar against the hryvnia.
An additional factor was the weakening of the euro against the US dollar. As a result, the exchange rates of the hryvnia to the dollar and hryvnia to euro may converge.
What specialists predict
Analysts suggest the following changes:
The exchange rate of the hryvnia/dollar in November may exceed 42.5 UAH
The exchange rate of the hryvnia/euro will remain at the level of October
The convergence of rates will be the result of the weakening of the euro against the dollar.
The institute's report states:
«The exchange rate of the hryvnia/dollar in November may be above the mark of 42.5, while the exchange rate of the hryvnia/euro in November will be at the level of October».