In July, the Ukrainian hryvnia will remain stable against the US dollar; however, the euro may show greater instability. The dollar exchange rate will fluctuate between 41.6-42.2 hryvnias, without sharp changes, while the euro may vary between 46.5-48.5 hryvnias.
Taras Lesovoy, the director of the financial markets and investment activities department at Globus Bank, emphasized that the National Bank of Ukraine continues to control the currency market through a 'managed flexibility' regime, which helps avoid chaotic fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Inflation Forecast
Forecasting July inflation at no more than 0.5%, Lesovoy also mentioned a possible decline in annual inflation to 13-14%. With such indicators, it is likely that the NBU will keep the discount rate unchanged at 15.5% at the next meeting on July 24.
Euro Exchange Rate Forecast
The euro exchange rate remains less predictable. It substantially depends on the international quotes of the dollar to the euro. Different economic relations between the US and the EU may influence its dynamics, just as the conflict between Israel and Iran and its impact on the energy market. It is projected that the euro exchange rate may fluctuate between 46.5-48.5 hryvnias.
In conclusion, the expert believes that the currency market will be active in July, but significant global strategic changes in exchange rates should not be expected.
With the help of specialists' forecasts, it is possible to infer how the exchange rate of the Ukrainian currency may change in July. The dynamics of exchange rates may depend on various factors, such as international events and the condition of the country's domestic economy.