Sharp Decline in Ukraine's Grain Exports
Ukraine's grain exports for the first seven months of the 2025/26 marketing year have fallen by 24% compared to the same period last year. The total volume shipped stands at 18.6 million tons, with the export value also dropping by 18%. This significant downturn is primarily attributed to a prolonged corn harvest, delayed by adverse weather, and attacks on critical infrastructure, which have severely complicated export logistics. The ongoing conflict continues to cast a long shadow over the country's agricultural economy.
Agricultural Sector Status and Forecasts
As of January 2026, approximately 8% of cornfields remained unharvested due to a rainy autumn. Despite these challenging conditions, 90% of all agricultural exports are still being routed through seaports, indicating a degree of resilience within the sector. Furthermore, winter grains for the 2026 harvest have been sown across 5.3 million hectares, matching last year's planting area.
Industry experts forecast that, despite the current slower pace of grain shipments, the total export volume for the entire 2025/26 marketing year is expected to exceed that of the previous year, though the process will be more drawn out over time.
"We are indeed seeing lower grain export rates this year... However, overall we anticipate greater exports compared to the previous year," noted Svitlana Lytvyn.
Additional factors influencing global grain prices include:
- drought conditions in Argentina;
- rising vessel insurance costs due to war-related risks.
"Trader safety is a concern, but contracts are still being signed... Refusals are not widespread," commented Denys Marchuk on the situation.
The situation in the agricultural sector remains complex, but businesses continue to seek ways to adapt to the new challenges. The export decline occurs against a backdrop of worsening climatic conditions and security uncertainties, highlighting the sector's vulnerability during wartime and global shifts. Despite the difficulties, agricultural producers persist in their work, hoping for improved weather and stabilization, which could positively impact future export volumes. This adaptation is also driving the search for new markets and opportunities for Ukrainian farmers.