Resistance to European Union Enlargement
The proposal by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to expand the European Union to include Ukraine is facing significant pushback from numerous current member states. Key concerns driving this resistance include fears of a populist backlash, the difficult experience of working with Hungary, and a general lack of political appetite to even begin the discussion. Notably, the topic of enlargement will not be included on the agenda for the summit in Nicosia scheduled for the end of this month.
According to information provided to POLITICO by nine EU diplomats and officials, no new country has joined the bloc since Croatia's accession in 2013. Hungary, which became a member in 2004, is frequently cited as a cautionary tale that fuels apprehension among other members. Péter Márki-Zay, who recently won the Hungarian election, has stated his opposition to granting Ukraine accelerated membership.
Factors Influencing Attitudes Toward Enlargement
Other influential factors include the fear of handing ammunition to populist politicians. As one diplomat from a mid-sized country noted:
“The same semi-populist, semi-xenophobic arguments we heard about the Poles, we are likely to hear about Ukrainians and any other candidates.”This context is compounded by a collective trauma from dealing with Hungary, which has left a negative impression on many European governments.
Another major consideration is the prospect of politically painful national referendums. Under French law, a referendum is required to approve a new EU member, a process that could complicate any expansion. A senior diplomat from a large European country stated:
“Of course, we don't want to weaken [President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy... but the overwhelming majority of member states have no appetite for this discussion right now.”
Despite this resistance, some member states are vocal supporters of Ukraine's EU aspirations. Sweden and Denmark, being Ukraine's most active backers, are pushing for accession negotiations to conclude by the end of next year. However, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy insist that the standard accession process must be followed without exceptions, emphasizing that:
- enlargement must remain a demanding, merit-based process,
- to ensure its success and maintain public trust.
Thus, the question of EU expansion remains open, requiring further discussion and careful deliberation among its members. The debate over enlargement reflects the complex internal political dynamics within the bloc. Balancing Ukraine's aspirations with national interests and political realities at home presents a formidable challenge for existing members, highlighting that any decision requires consensus and a careful assessment of potential consequences for the EU's own stability.
While the debate over Ukraine's EU membership remains stagnant, the focus may shift towards other potential candidates for expansion. Recent discussions have highlighted Iceland and Norway as emerging contenders, raising questions about how their inclusion could reshape the dynamics within the Union. To explore the implications of these potential shifts in enlargement priorities, read more about Iceland and Norway's prospects for EU membership.