Oil Flows Amidst Regional Tensions
Expert Mykhailo Gonchar has expressed the view that escalating tensions in the Middle East are unlikely to result in a complete halt of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. He pointed to historical precedent, specifically the 'Tanker War' that lasted from 1984 to 1987 during the Iran-Iraq conflict, which demonstrated that oil flows can resume after a pause, often facilitated by back-channel negotiations.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy chokepoint, and according to Gonchar, oil will continue to move through it despite potential threats. He emphasized that China is actively pressuring Iran to avoid escalating the conflict if it wishes to retain Beijing's support. The expert also noted that strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure have not yet occurred, though he believes the U.S. and Israel could potentially carry them out to deprive the Iranian regime of its primary revenue stream.
Diverging Interests of Russia and the U.S.
Gonchar highlighted that Russia may have an interest in a prolonged Middle East conflict, as it could help compensate for a global oil supply deficit.
"The Russians, more than anyone, are interested in something igniting in the Middle East—and not for a day, two, or a week, but for months," he noted.
U.S. President Donald Trump has also commented on the situation, stating the possibility of providing naval escorts for tankers. Gonchar observed that while tankers have been damaged and even sunk in the past, "ultimately, with increased freight rates and insurance costs, oil was still transported."
The expert remarked that sinking a modern tanker is an unrealistic task, as the anti-ship missiles in Iran's arsenal would not cause significant damage to such vessels.
"You could deploy some mines, but it wouldn't have the critical impact portrayed in Western media. Nothing will stop," Gonchar concluded.
The situation in the Middle East remains tense. However, the expert's opinion on the likely continuation of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz suggests global energy infrastructure may be more resilient to conflict escalation than commonly assumed. Given China's role and Russia's interests, further developments could impact global oil prices and the energy policies of many nations. Meanwhile, the potential for U.S. military escort of tankers indicates Washington's aim to maintain regional stability and protect its economic interests. The stability of this maritime route is crucial for global energy security, affecting economies worldwide.