The official exchange rate of the euro is approaching 50 hryvnias per unit, which is a historical mark. Over the past four months, the rate has risen by more than 13.5%. Some banks are already trading euros at this rate.
Global processes and the record growth of the euro rate
According to Economic Truth, the sharp rise in the euro exchange rate in Ukraine is not due to internal factors, but global processes. For instance, the US dollar is experiencing its worst half-year since 1973, losing 10.8% in value against major world currencies.
The depreciation of the 'greenback' is influenced by three key factors: unpredictable trade policies of Donald Trump, the threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve System, and uncontrolled growth of US national debt. Investors are starting to move funds from American assets to alternative 'safe havens', including the economy of the European Union.
Future forecasts
Analysts do not rule out further growth of the euro rate. According to forecasts from the 'Bank Avant-garde', the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the euro may fluctuate in the range of 46.5-51.5 hryvnias until the end of 2020. The dollar will remain within 41.5-43.5 hryvnias.
According to leading expert of 'OTP Bank' Yevhen Myiutsa, the euro-to-dollar ratio might be 1.2-1.25 by the end of the year. However, the director of analytical research at 'Raiffeisen Bank' Oleksandr Pecheritsy remains more cautious, believing that the euro/dollar exchange rate at the end of the year could be at the level of 1.17.
NBU's position
The National Bank of Ukraine currently does not intend to change the main currency determining the exchange rate from the dollar to the euro. The NBU emphasizes that their task is to maintain a stable situation on the currency market, rather than setting a target currency exchange rate.
Ukrainians now have the opportunity to purchase euros at a price approaching 50 hryvnias per unit, which has become a historical mark. The sharp rise in the euro rate is not an internal phenomenon in our country, but a result of global processes, particularly the weakening of the US dollar. Future forecasts also suggest further growth of the euro rate, although the NBU's position remains unchanged, not specifying a target exchange rate.