European Union Enlargement Expected by 2029
The European Union is projected to expand by 2029, with Russia's war against Ukraine serving as the primary catalyst for this process. This statement was made by EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos during a panel discussion at the URC 2026 conference in Gdańsk. She identified Montenegro as the most realistic candidate for EU accession, predicting it will happen before her term ends in 2029.
Kos also emphasized that the war in Ukraine has accelerated EU enlargement, stating:
“We must acknowledge that this process has been accelerated precisely by the war in Ukraine”
The conference also discussed Iceland's potential accession, which hinges on the country reopening its membership bid and securing public support in a referendum scheduled for August. Albania, meanwhile, has begun closing negotiation chapters, signaling a renewed push for integration.
EU Enlargement Dynamics
The pace of EU enlargement is now faster than it has been in the last fifteen years. Ukraine and Moldova were granted EU candidate status in June 2022, and on June 15, 2026, all 27 EU member states unanimously supported opening the first negotiating cluster, Fundamentals, for both countries. Kyiv aims to open the remaining five clusters by mid-July. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has also stated that admitting new countries by 2030 is a realistic goal, naming Ukraine, Moldova, Albania, and Montenegro as the most promising candidates.
However, on June 23, Hungary delayed the opening of new clusters for Ukraine and Moldova by blocking a joint letter from all 27 member states. Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar explained the move by arguing that opening all clusters simultaneously would send the wrong signal to Western Balkan nations.
The current state of EU enlargement reflects significant political and economic activity in the region, especially amid rising tensions from the war in Ukraine. A key factor is that EU support could prove decisive for the stability and development of Eastern European countries. However, Hungary's obstruction highlights existing political divisions that may slow integration progress. As a result, future developments in this area will require close monitoring and analysis.
As the EU accelerates its enlargement plans, the focus also shifts to the potential fast-tracking of membership for several countries in the Western Balkans. This move could significantly reshape the geopolitical landscape in the region. For a deeper understanding of these dynamics and the implications for future EU membership, explore our article on the rapid accession efforts of six Balkan nations.