My Analysis
Counterstrike on 93 Billion: A Trap for Investments
Europe pulls out a package from the drawer that has been prepared for a year. Restricting access of American companies to government contracts in the EU is an attempt to create 'Fortress Europe'.
If Trump is building 'LLC World' around the USA, then Brussels is trying to create a closed joint-stock cooperative. But there is a problem: Europe lacks its own 'energy sovereignty'. Dependence on American LNG (27% now, 40% by 2030) makes this counterstrike resemble a suicide attempt while standing on a powder keg.
Division of the Right: Sovereignty vs. Ideology
That even AfD is turning away from Trump is a tectonic shift. European right-wingers have understood: they are not 'allies in conservatism' for Trump, but merely branch managers who must pay rent.
A new 'Euro-Sovereignty' is being born in Europe. For Ukraine, this is a risk - if Europe closes in on itself to fight Trump, it will be unable to support our defense. But this is also our chance - to become an 'indispensable asset' for both sides.
Gas Valve as the 'Nuclear Button'
Europe's hope for the 'oil and gas lobby' in the USA is the last illusion. Trump has already proven that for him geopolitics (control over the Arctic and Greenland) is more important than ExxonMobil's quarterly report.
If Trump 'turns off the valve', Europe will fall into a depression comparable to 1929. In this situation, Ukraine with its vast UGS (underground gas storage) becomes a key player. We are the only 'warehouse' of energy that is inside the European contour but is managed within the logic of the Prosperity Plan.