How Drones Are Reshaping Modern Combat
American political scientist Francis Fukuyama has assessed the transformative role of drones in contemporary warfare, arguing that Ukraine is gaining an edge over Russia through their use. He suggests that Russia's hold on Crimea could become untenable, even as conventional air power remains relevant. Ukraine now produces millions of low-cost FPV drones annually, enabling systematic strikes against Russian air defenses in occupied Crimea using missiles and medium-range drones.
Fukuyama points out that the Crimean Peninsula has limited supply routes, relying on a single road and rail corridor across the northern isthmus and the Kerch Bridge. He notes that Ukraine has targeted the Kerch Bridge for three consecutive years, severely hampering Russian logistics. This leads the political scientist to conclude:
“Under these circumstances, it would be no surprise if Russian commanders decide within the next year that their position in Crimea is hopeless and begin withdrawing troops—just as they have already pulled out most of their fleet.”— Francis Fukuyama.
The Economics of Modern Weaponry
Fukuyama also compares the costs of modern weapons systems, noting that a Patriot missile costs over four million dollars, while a Shahed drone costs less than 40 thousand dollars. This highlights how Ukraine uses its resources more efficiently, carrying out long-range strike campaigns against Russian oil and gas facilities, sometimes thousands of kilometers from the border.
He adds,
“This balance will persist until someone develops a cheap and effective counter-drone system.”— Francis Fukuyama. Drawing on historical context, he recalls the destruction of Dresden, Hamburg, and Tokyo during World War II, which caused hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties. This underscores the gravity of modern conflicts and their human impact.
Fukuyama also comments on Russian military actions, stating that “throughout the war, Russians have struck Ukrainian civilian targets, hospitals, and schools, making life unbearable for many citizens. Yet they have not forced the country to surrender.” This reflects Ukraine's resilience amid aggression and the importance of new technologies in this struggle. Observers have noted that this year's Victory Day parade on Red Square featured less military hardware, partly due to fears of Ukrainian strikes.
Aviation roles remain diverse:
- Strategic (destroying deep-rear targets)
- Operational (striking military targets 10–100 km from the front)
- Close air support (attacking frontline troops)
This underscores the relevance of technologies like drones, which are shifting the battlefield balance of power.
Fukuyama's conclusions highlight the significance of technological innovation in modern conflicts, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine. The growing use of drones is transforming traditional combat approaches, creating new challenges for both sides' military strategies. As Ukraine continues adapting to new conditions, questions of efficiency and weapon costs remain critical in shaping the war's trajectory. Meanwhile, developments in Crimea could prove decisive for the strategic objectives of both countries.
As the landscape of modern warfare evolves, the insights of experts like the former CIA Director shed light on how drones are redefining combat strategies. This shift not only impacts tactical decisions on the ground but also highlights the broader implications for military engagements worldwide, emphasizing the need for nations to adapt to these technological advancements.