Security guarantees for Ukraine: what European allies can realistically offer
The issue of security guarantees for Ukraine remains one of the most pressing in discussions with European partners. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasizes a clear sequence:
'First security guarantees, then a ceasefire.' - Volodymyr Zelensky
However, historical experience, particularly the unilateral guarantees from Britain to Poland on March 31, 1939, which did not prevent tragedy, casts doubt on the very concept of such external promises in times of crisis.
Military capabilities of European states
The real military capabilities of key European states appear limited. Reports indicate:
- Britain can send up to 7500 troops;
- France - about 12000;
- The total figure discussed reached only 20000 persons.
The economic state of the EU also does not add optimism: the total debt of the three largest economies (Germany, France, Italy) is about 13 trillion euros with a block GDP of about 17 trillion, and growth is expected to be only 1.4-1.8% in 2025.
The Chancellor of Germany openly stated that Ukraine's accession to the EU in 2027 is an 'absolutely unrealistic' scenario, questioning alternative paths of integration. In such conditions, as is heard in discussions, 'the only guarantee of security is your army, your economy, and your people'.