The final decision of EU countries to stop purchasing Russian gas by September 2027 establishes a new reality for the European and Ukrainian markets.
The transition to alternative sources requires not only changes in logistics but also adaptation to a new pricing model where cheap raw materials are replaced by technologically complex and expensive imports.
What is the EU replacing supplies from the Russian Federation with?
Europe is moving towards a "portfolio" supply model where no single supplier holds a monopoly.
-
Maritime bridge from the USA: The main source becomes American liquefied natural gas (LNG). By 2027, the export capacity of the USA will increase to 169 million tons per year, allowing it to cover up to 40% of the EU's needs.
-
Norwegian foundation: Pipeline supplies from Norway remain stable at 90 billion m3 per year, serving as the base load of the system.
-
Caspian and Mediterranean vectors:
-
Azerbaijan: The expansion of the TAP pipeline will provide an additional 1.2-2 billion m3 annually.
-
Romania: The commencement of extraction on the shelf (Neptune Deep project) in 2027 will give the region another 8 billion m3 per year.
-
Qatar: The implementation of the production expansion program will provide the EU with flexibility during peak demand periods.
-
Comparison of Production Costs
Energy Factor
With the gas price at $525 per thousand cubic meters in Europe and Ukraine versus $186 in the USA, the cost of production in heavy industry shows a critical gap.
Table: Estimated Production Cost (January 2026)
|
Indicator |
USA |
RF |
Ukraine / EU |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Price of gas (per 1000 m3) |
$186 |
$90 |
$525 |
|
Ton of steel (cost) |
$450 |
$380 |
$680–720 |
|
155 mm shell (base) |
$3,000 |
$1,000 (152 mm) |
$5,500–8,000 |
|
Ammonia (fertilizers), ton |
$250 |
$180 |
$550–600 |
What Awaits the Industry of Ukraine?
For the real sector of Ukraine, the situation is complicated by the absence of physical transit.
-
Logistics surcharge:
Without gas from the Russian Federation, Ukraine is transitioning to physical reverse from Europe. This automatically adds $50–70 to the market price for transportation.
-
Threat of deindustrialization:
With raw material prices above $550, metallurgical and chemical enterprises in Ukraine lose competitiveness in foreign markets. The only way to survive is to integrate into the production chains of the USA, where Ukrainian plants can act as "assembly shops" provided that there are supplies of cheaper American resources through UGS.
-
Storages as a guarantee:
Ukrainian underground storages are becoming a key element of security for Central Europe. The ability to store up to 10–15 billion m3 of European and American gas will help smooth price fluctuations for domestic enterprises if an agreement on preferential tariffs in exchange for storage services is reached.