The State of the Hryvnia in the Currency Market
The hryvnia is under pressure in the currency market, especially after December 10, due to seasonal factors and increased demand for foreign currency. A rise in the dollar is forecasted, despite the decrease in currency deficit in the interbank market. Cash dollars have adjusted from 42.49 to 42.37 hryvnias, while interbank trading has ended at around 42.03 hryvnias. This indicates ongoing pressure on the hryvnia, which, according to expert Andriy Shevchishin, has not disappeared.
Expectations in the Currency Market
The reduction in currency deficit in the interbank market may not affect the stability of the hryvnia. Experts believe that the mechanisms triggering seasonal weakening of the hryvnia may become relevant after December 10. This is linked to the expected decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which will be made on December 10, as well as the decision of the National Bank of Ukraine regarding the interest rate, which will take place on December 11. The baseline scenario of the NBU suggests maintaining the interest rate at 15.5%.
Andriy Shevchishin also noted that the NBU will attempt to keep the euro close to the mark of 49.45 hryvnias. Thus, the currency market continues to remain under pressure, and the future dynamics of the hryvnia will depend on external and internal factors that may affect the demand and supply of currency.
The situation in the currency market of Ukraine reflects global economic trends and domestic policy. The importance of decisions made at the level of central banks confirms the need for careful monitoring of the external economic situation. Expectations of changes in interest rates could significantly influence investment decisions and the stability of the national currency in the short term.