Predictions for the Hryvnia Exchange Rate at the End of December 2025
December 2025 promises to be turbulent for the Ukrainian currency market due to a number of geopolitical factors and budget payments. Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyriv presented three possible scenarios for the development of the Hryvnia exchange rate leading up to the start of 2026, which indicate increasing risks of devaluation.
According to forecasts, on December 10, 2025, the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to lower its interest rate by 0.25%. At the same time, on December 18, 2025, the European Central Bank is most likely to keep its rates unchanged. By the end of the year, 50–70 billion Hryvnias will enter the market due to budget payments, which, according to Kozyriv, additionally pressures the Hryvnia exchange rate.
'No less than 50–70 billion additional Hryvnias will enter the market, which will further pressure the Hryvnia exchange rate during this period.' - Oleksiy Kozyriv
Scenarios for the Development of the Hryvnia Exchange Rate
Oleksiy Kozyriv presented three scenarios for the Hryvnia exchange rate at the end of December 2025:
- Optimistic Scenario: the interbank exchange rate may fluctuate between 42.80–43.60 UAH/USD, while on the cash market in January 2026 it will be 42.50–43.20 UAH/USD.
- Realistic Scenario: a rate of 43.50–44.00 UAH/USD is projected, with a possible value in January–February 2026 of 44.50–45.50 UAH/USD.
- Negative Scenario: the interbank exchange rate could reach 44.50–46.00 UAH/USD, while the cash market in January 2026 could reach up to 47.00 UAH/USD.
'There will be too many factors influencing quickly and, most importantly, radically changing the situation on world and Ukrainian currency markets.' - Oleksiy Kozyriv
He also noted that under any of the aforementioned scenarios, December and early January will be a serious test for the Hryvnia, with rising devaluation risks. The recommended asset allocation for this period is 35–40% in Hryvnia-denominated instruments and 60–65% in foreign currency assets.
Thus, December 2025 may become a critical period for the Hryvnia, and the market expects significant fluctuations.
Considering Oleksiy Kozyriv's forecasts, December 2025 appears especially crucial for Ukraine's financial stability. The increase in budget payments and changes in central bank policies may substantially impact the currency market, requiring careful monitoring from investors and governmental institutions. It is important for market participants to be prepared for potential devaluation fluctuations and to adapt their strategies according to experts' predictions.