Business Activity Expectations Index for September 2026
In September 2026, the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) registered at 48.2, reflecting a cautious stance among business leaders. This marks a slight decline from August 2026, when the index stood at 48.3, and a more noticeable drop compared to September 2025's level of 50.4. Several challenges continue to constrain economic activity, including:
- deterioration of the security environment;
- damage to logistics, manufacturing, and warehousing facilities;
- rising fuel prices;
- limited domestic supply of goods and services;
- shortage of skilled labor.
Understanding these factors is crucial for international observers monitoring the region’s economic resilience amid ongoing instability.
Sector Performance and Positive Developments
On the upside, stable energy supply, a strong harvest season, and the expansion of new logistics routes offer some economic relief. Industrial enterprises have resumed a positive outlook on their operations, while construction firms have adopted a more reserved view after six months of optimism. This shift is linked to a halt in government funding, seasonal fluctuations, and rising costs.
Trade and service sectors remain cautious due to the destruction of storage infrastructure, high logistics expenses, increased fuel costs, and the scarcity of qualified personnel. Most respondents anticipate faster increases in both purchasing and selling prices.
Regarding employment trends, workforce reductions are expected across most industries, except in construction, where companies plan to expand their staff.
The current Business Activity Expectations Index highlights widespread economic uncertainty driven by multiple adverse factors.
Given rising operational costs and workforce shortages, government support remains vital, especially in financing infrastructure projects and improving conditions for business operations. Continuous monitoring of labor markets and developments in industrial and construction sectors will be essential to identify emerging trends and potential risks to economic stability.