Interview with Andrew Novo
In a revealing conversation, British historian Andrew Roberts interviews American historian and strategic studies professor Andrew Novo about their collaborative book, Reclaiming Thucydides. This work offers a nuanced examination of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, emphasizing the importance of understanding his writings within their full context and challenging the widespread misuse of isolated quotes. The book explores several critical themes, including:
- The so-called "Thucydides Trap";
- The Melian Dialogue;
- The Sicilian Expedition;
- The civil strife (stasis) on Corcyra;
- Thucydides’ perspective on democracy;
- The role of counterfactual history.
The Enduring Impact of Thucydides
Thucydides, an Athenian historian and general, played a direct role in the Peloponnesian War. After a military setback, he was exiled from Athens and spent the remainder of his life in exile. His family was wealthy, owning gold mines in Thrace. His historical works delve deeply into human motivations such as fear, honor, and self-interest.
Andrew Novo, a professor of strategic studies at the U.S. National Defense University, co-authored Reclaiming Thucydides with Jay Parker. Their book revisits the "Thucydides Trap," a concept popularized by Graham Allison, which describes the tension and potential conflict that arises when a rising power threatens to displace an established one. The classic example is Sparta’s fear of Athens’ growing influence, particularly through Athens’ alliances with states like Corinth.
A focal point of the book is the Melian Dialogue, a tense conversation during peacetime between Athens and the island of Melos. Athens demands either submission or destruction, famously stating, "The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must." Following this episode, Athens suffered a major defeat in the 416 BCE Sicilian Expedition, led in part by the Athenian politician and general Alcibiades.
Thucydides was also critical of the volatility of democracy and the dangers posed by demagogues, though he admired Pericles and his funeral oration delivered in 431 BCE. During the Peloponnesian War, monumental projects like the Parthenon were built atop the Acropolis. Another significant event was the stasis on Corcyra in 427 BCE, a brutal civil conflict between democratic and oligarchic factions.
Andrew Novo highlights the value of counterfactual history—considering "what if" scenarios—such as the possibility of Mark Antony defeating Octavian in Roman history. He stresses that the lessons from Thucydides remain relevant today, urging modern leaders to stay vigilant, echoing Graham Allison’s warning:
"The lesson here is that leaders must stay alert."
Beyond recounting history, the book challenges common misreadings and out-of-context citations of Thucydides. The historian himself expressed a desire for his work to aid those seeking a clear understanding of past events, emphasizing the repetitive nature of human behavior:
"It will be enough for me if my words are found useful by those who wish to clearly grasp events of the past, which, because human nature remains constant, are bound to recur in many respects."
In today’s complex international landscape, where conflicts often echo long-standing historical patterns, Reclaiming Thucydides encourages a careful study of historical experience. The authors argue that appreciating the true context and intentions of historical figures can provide valuable guidance to prevent repeating past mistakes and better navigate current geopolitical challenges.