Iran's Missile Stockpile Makes a Comeback
Western allies believe that during the ceasefire, Iran managed to restore a large portion of its missile arsenal and also integrated new Russian weaponry. Intelligence estimates suggest Tehran now holds roughly three-quarters of the munitions it possessed before the conflict began. These findings sharply contradict public statements from U.S. leadership—particularly President Donald Trump, who claimed Iran had only 21–22% of its missiles left, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who asserted a 90% reduction.
Iran continues to actively deploy its missile capabilities. Between February 28 and April 8, the country launched over 1,850 missiles, along with at least twice as many rudimentary 'Shahed' cruise missiles. A significant number of ballistic missiles and launchers were reportedly buried under rubble, and Tehran used the ceasefire period to reopen storage sites and reroute supply chains. The Shahed drones, noted for their flight range of over 1,000 km, cost less than $50,000 each to produce.
Tactical Wins and Lingering Challenges
During the March air campaign, Iran had access to roughly 60% of its pre-war arsenal. U.S. and Israeli assessments indicate that about two-thirds of Iranian missile launchers were destroyed in the first month of the war. Yet, despite these claimed tactical victories, the United States failed to achieve its objectives of crippling Iran’s defense-industrial base or significantly degrading its missile program.
As expert Becca Wasser noted, 'Despite all the claimed tactical successes, the United States has not achieved its goals of undermining Iran's defense industrial base or significantly reducing the level of its missile program.'
Looking ahead to future Tehran-Washington relations, both sides have reportedly nearly finalized the terms of a memorandum of understanding. The Trump administration believes Israel will back these agreements. However, Iran’s retention of a substantial portion of its pre-war arsenal complicates any U.S. decision to resume full-scale attacks, as Kelly Grieco pointed out: 'Iran having a significant part of its pre-war arsenal makes it difficult for the United States to decide to resume full-scale attacks.'
These developments highlight Iran’s remarkable resilience and ability to rapidly replenish its weapons stockpiles, raising questions about the effectiveness of international pressure on the country.
Iran’s missile arsenal recovery demonstrates its capacity to adapt to conflict conditions—and possibly even strengthen its military capabilities going forward. This could complicate future arms control negotiations and heighten regional tensions. As Iran continues to actively use its arsenal, neighboring countries may need to reassess their own defense strategies in response to shifting security dynamics.
As tensions escalate, the United States has reportedly considered more aggressive strategies, including a potential military intervention to secure Iran's nuclear resources. This context highlights the ongoing geopolitical complexities surrounding Iran's missile capabilities and its nuclear ambitions. For more insights into the U.S. plans regarding Iran's uranium, see the recent developments on the planned invasion.