Assessing U.S. and Russian Conflicts: Iran and Ukraine
Historian Timothy Snyder, alongside former Biden administration officials Jake Sullivan and John Fainer, recently analyzed U.S. military involvement with Iran and Ukraine’s war against Russia. Snyder argues that the United States has already lost its conflict with Iran, while Russian President Vladimir Putin now holds a far weaker position than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In Snyder’s view, Russia must suffer a military defeat before it can undergo meaningful internal reform.
A Yale University historian, Snyder revealed that the U.S. is currently negotiating a memorandum of understanding with Iran. He noted that the proposed peace terms include a $300 billion pledge and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. In his assessment, American military operations in this theater have ended in failure.
“We lost this war. I’ll say it plainly. We lost this war, and we lost it a long time ago.” — Timothy Snyder
Ukraine’s Situation and U.S. Support
Turning to Ukraine, Snyder pointed out that in May of this year, Russia lost more territory than it managed to capture. Commenting on the broader picture, he stated, “We need to help Ukraine win. There’s really no contradiction here.” Notably, Ukrainian forces are increasingly using medium- and long-range drones to destroy Russian logistics, as well as to strike Moscow and oil refineries.
According to Snyder, the United States is investing $1.5 billion in Ukraine’s drone industry, underscoring Washington’s commitment to Kyiv’s fight against Russia.
“We’re not helping them—they’re helping us.” — Timothy Snyder
Snyder also highlighted that Russian military casualties now exceed their ability to recruit replacements, raising serious doubts about Moscow’s capacity to sustain a prolonged war.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, and the front-line situation remains extremely volatile. Snyder believes that for Russia to have “a chance to reform itself sensibly,” it must lose the war. These remarks reinforce the critical need for continued U.S. and international support for Ukraine.
Jake Sullivan, a former Biden administration official, received a copy of Timothy Snyder’s book "On Freedom" as a Christmas gift—a sign of the administration’s interest in the historian’s perspectives. In that book, Snyder emphasizes the importance of recognizing positive achievements and collaborating with others to attain freedom.
The discussion involving Snyder and former Biden officials highlights pressing challenges in international relations and military conflicts. The emphasis on supporting Ukraine against Russia underscores the value of global solidarity and efforts to ensure regional stability. Meanwhile, the situation with Iran reflects the complexity of U.S. foreign policy, which must continuously adapt to shifting realities on the world stage.
As the situation in Ukraine evolves, it’s essential to understand the broader implications of these conflicts. Historian Snyder emphasizes that Ukraine is pivotal in fulfilling NATO's mission, highlighting how its efforts are crucial not just for regional stability but also for the strategic interests of the West. This context further underscores the importance of U.S. support in the ongoing fight against Russian aggression.