Institute for the Study of War Report for February 1, 2026
A February 1, 2026, assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) outlines dynamic changes along the Ukrainian front. While Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) are making continued advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, including gains around the settlement of Nesterne on January 30, Russian troops have intensified their assaults on the Pokrovsk axis, complicating the situation for Ukrainian defenders.
On January 31, Ukraine's 16th Army Corps reported a surge in Russian attacks that is hampering the effective use of Ukrainian drones. Notably, a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kharkiv sector has extended its strike range into Russia's Belgorod Oblast. This action was a direct response to Russian forces employing TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems from the Shebekino area. Between January 30 and 31, Russian military personnel were observed in the center of Petropavlivka, east of Kupiansk, and in the northern part of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi.
Developments Southwest of Kostiantynivka
Ukrainian forces also achieved successes north of Yablunivka, southwest of Kostiantynivka, on January 31. Concurrently, Russian units made minor advances southeast of Kostiantynivka, where they were documented near the Donetsk Railway. In the same January 30-31 period, Russian troops captured the village of Balahan, east of Pokrovsk, and made inroads in the central part of Myrnohrad and along the E-50 Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad highway south of Hryshyne.
Further Russian activity was recorded west of Dobropillia and west of Pryluky, north of Huliaipole. Russian military presence was also confirmed northwest of Zelene, and units of Russia's 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment raised flags in the eastern and western parts of Sviatopetrivka. In a separate development, Russia has begun restoring and expanding military infrastructure in the Republic of Karelia, a region bordering Finland and NATO territory. This northern build-up occurs as intense fighting continues to reshape the map in eastern Ukraine.
The report underscores the persistence of active combat across multiple Ukrainian fronts, highlighting the unstable situation and the necessity for constant monitoring of military movements.
The growing use of drones by both sides and the intensification of Russian assaults on key axes point to an escalation of the conflict, with potential implications for regional security. Russia's military construction in Karelia may also signal an intent to bolster its strategic posture near NATO's borders.