Disputing Russia's Reported Territorial Gains
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has challenged claims from the Russian General Staff regarding significant territorial advances made by Russian forces in 2025-2026. According to ISW's analysis, the actual figures are substantially lower than those presented by Russian leadership. Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy, head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate, stated that since the start of 2026, Russian troops had seized approximately 900 square kilometers of territory and 42 settlements. However, ISW provides contrasting data, indicating Russia controls only 572 square kilometers and 19 settlements.
Rudskoy also asserted in his statements that in 2025, Russian forces captured over 6,700 square kilometers and more than 300 settlements. ISW's data, however, shows Russia controlled only 252 settlements in 2025. The institute emphasized that Russian troops advanced or conducted infiltration operations on just 7% of the territory around Kostiantynivka. Furthermore, it is reported that in 2026, Russia captured 99 square kilometers and three new settlements, including Huliaipole, but also lost control of 18 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
ISW Expert Conclusions
ISW notes that Ukrainian forces recaptured 86 square kilometers in 2026. Analysts report that in 2025, Russian troops advanced at a rate of 13–15 square kilometers per day, losing 83 personnel for every square kilometer gained. The analysis also points out that restrictions on Starlink access, implemented by SpaceX, have impacted Russian military communications, potentially affecting their ability to conduct effective operations. This independent assessment provides a crucial counter-narrative to official Russian war reporting.
ISW assesses that Russian forces are conducting limited cross-border attacks in northern Sumy Oblast in an attempt to persuade Western nations that the frontline is collapsing and that Ukraine should agree to all of Russia's demands.
The data provided by ISW suggests the Russian army may be failing to achieve its stated strategic objectives, despite public declarations of success. This discrepancy could impact the morale of Russian troops and influence domestic politics within Russia, as mounting casualties and a lack of significant gains may raise doubts about the efficacy of military operations. In the context of rising tensions between Russia and the West, such informational disparities could also affect international support for Ukraine and defensive strategies in the region.