Crisis in Iran: regime considers negotiations for the first time after the death of over 2000 people
Iran is experiencing a serious crisis caused by protests, economic difficulties, and internal political struggles. The number of deaths during the protests has exceeded 2000, indicating an escalation of the situation in the country. In response to these events, the Iranian regime has for the first time considered the possibility of negotiations with the protesters, which may suggest a weakening of its positions.
The economic situation in Iran is also concerning. The national currency, rial, has depreciated by 40% over the course of 2025, falling from 875,000 rials per dollar to 1.45 million. This indicates significant economic hardships that the country is experiencing, which are likely pushing the population to protest. Internal political struggles have led to the destruction of 12 senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) since June 2024, indicating a deep division within the regime.
Historical Context and International Politics
Historically, Iran has faced protests in 1999, 2009, 2019, 2022-23, and 2017, and now the country finds itself on the brink of a major social crisis once again. Kamran Bokhari, an analyst, noted:
'The regime has never been so weak as it is now.'
He also added that 'the clergy has practically exited the stage', which may indicate a change in the political landscape of the country.
In the context of international politics, Donald Trump is considering the possibility of airstrikes on Iran, which could lead to further escalation of the situation. This raises questions about potential U.S. intervention and its consequences for the region. Some experts, like George Friedman, express thoughts about 'the possibility of weakening the IRGC with very precise strikes', which could become a catalyst for new events in the country.
At the same time, neighboring countries, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, express a desire to remain aloof from the conflict, which could influence regional stability. Resolving the crisis in Iran could have far-reaching consequences for neighboring states like Iraq and raise new challenges for the international community.
The situation in Iran is critically important not only for the country itself but also for the entire region. Given the possibility of international intervention, particularly from the U.S., as well as internal contradictions, Iran may face further social and political changes that could impact the stability of neighboring states. Therefore, developments in Iran require close attention from the international community, as their consequences could be felt in various corners of the world.