Preparations for the Invasion of Ukraine
Dmitry Kozak, the Russian presidential administration's deputy head and the Kremlin's point man on Ukraine, was only informed of the preparations to invade Ukraine on February 21, 2022. This date was critical, coming a mere three days before the full-scale war began. During a Security Council meeting, Kozak was the sole individual to openly contradict President Putin, arguing against the invasion from a strategic standpoint. This revelation highlights the extreme secrecy and compartmentalization within the Russian leadership in the lead-up to the conflict.
Following that meeting, Kozak continued the discussion with Putin in private, yet he remained unclear whether the plan involved a limited operation in the Donbas or a full-scale war. According to investigations, only a handful of civilian officials, as assessed by the CIA, were aware of the details of Putin's plans. Sources state that Kozak was kept in the dark, along with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Removal from Influence and Consequences
Kozak had maintained regular contact with the head of the Ukrainian President's Office, Andriy Yermak, as part of negotiations concerning the Donbas. However, after the invasion commenced, Kozak was sidelined and removed from coordinating Russia's Ukraine policy. As Kozak himself noted,
“the invasion of Ukraine will be a catastrophe”.
These circumstances underscore the complexities of Russia's internal politics and the lack of transparency in decision-making regarding Ukraine. The information points to uncertainty and disagreements within the Russian leadership over strategic plans for Ukraine, revealing that not all high-ranking officials were privy to the Kremlin's true intentions. Kozak's removal from the Ukraine portfolio after the war began may indicate the growing isolation of certain officials and shifts in crisis management within Russia. These events have significant implications for understanding Russia's internal politics and its external aggression against Ukraine.