Ukrainian entrepreneurs are preparing for a possible weakening of the hryvnia in the coming year. According to the European Business Association, it is expected that the average exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar will be 46 hryvnias in 2026 due to the difficult situation close to a state of war.
The dynamics of business expectations are deteriorating: while 41 hryvnias per dollar were anticipated for 2024, this figure increased to 44 hryvnias for 2025. Currently, the rate already exceeds these forecasts and stands at 41.35 UAH per dollar.
Despite currency concerns, the mood of the Ukrainian business remains positive. Most entrepreneurs expect improvements in 2026, with an increase in financial indicators and investment activity.
Emphasis on government requirements
A survey among 80 company executives who are members of the European Business Association showed that besides acknowledging corruption problems and the need for judicial reform, 36% of respondents consider Ukraine's fulfillment of its obligations in the context of obtaining candidate status for EU membership very important.
Ukrainian businessmen anticipate a weakening of the hryvnia in the coming year due to the unstable situation in the country caused by the war. Nevertheless, they remain optimistic about the further development of business in 2026. The survey also showed that for many entrepreneurs, an important requirement for the government is the fulfillment of Ukraine's obligations to obtain candidate status for EU membership.