The Hryvnia-Dollar Exchange Rate in January 2026
In January 2026, the Ukrainian hryvnia experienced considerable fluctuations against the US dollar. According to economist Oleksiy Plotnikov, this volatility stemmed from the need to align the real exchange rate with the figure set in the state budget and the advantageous conversion of foreign financial aid. The official exchange rate moved between a low of 42.17 UAH per dollar and a high of 43.41 UAH per dollar. Ukraine's state budget for 2026 is based on an average annual rate of 45.7 UAH per dollar. This budgetary planning provides a key reference point for the National Bank's currency management.
Foreign Reserves and Forecasts
Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves are at their highest level since independence, enabling the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to intervene actively in the currency market. Oleksiy Plotnikov notes that the current devaluation is a managed process, granting the NBU significant resources for such interventions.
The forecast for February 2026 suggests the dollar will not surpass 44 UAH. Experts anticipate the most likely trading range to be between 42.00 and 43.50 UAH per dollar. These predictions align with the general trend of volatility observed on Ukraine's currency market in recent months.
The hryvnia's performance reflects not only domestic economic factors but also the influence of global economic trends. The record-high reserves provide Ukraine with a measure of stability amid a challenging economic climate, potentially simplifying exchange rate management and supporting financial stability. Monitoring the currency's trajectory in the coming months will serve as a crucial indicator for analyzing Ukraine's economic direction.