The Hryvnia Exchange Rate at the Border of 43.5 per Dollar: Four Factors Pressuring the Currency
In Ukraine, the devaluation of the Hryvnia continues under the influence of economic factors, while the National Bank of Ukraine controls the situation in the currency market. A tense situation is forecasted in the market for the week from January 12 to 16, 2026.
Recent events in the financial market have pushed the Hryvnia towards depreciation. The influx of a significant amount of budget funds into the market at the end of December 2025 was one of the key factors that influenced the exchange rate. An important reason for the pressure is also the excess liquidity in the banking system, which exceeds 600 billion UAH in deposit certificates.
Forecast of the Exchange Rate and Influencing Factors
The forecast for the interbank exchange rate indicates that the dollar will fluctuate within the range of 42.85 - 43.55 UAH, while the euro will be 49.62 - 50.94 UAH. In banks, according to forecasts, the dollar exchange rate will be between 42.70 - 43.70 UAH, while the euro will be 49.70 - 50.90 UAH. In the exchange offices of financial companies, the dollar is forecasted to be within 42.80 - 43.60 UAH, while the euro is expected to be 49.80 - 50.80 UAH.
Ukraine's gold and foreign exchange reserves have reached 57.3 billion dollars. However, against the backdrop of these figures, experts point to four key factors that play against the Hryvnia:
- excess Hryvnia
- public panic
- rising prices
- seasonal factors and war
Devaluation will still occur. It will happen gradually.
Oleksiy Kozyrev, Economic Expert
He also emphasized that 'psychologically, the successful operation of the USA in Venezuela worked'. At the same time, he expressed confidence that 'the situation regarding the dollar exchange rate in the interbank market will remain fully under the control of the regulator'.
This situation in Ukraine's currency market indicates the difficult economic conditions in which the country finds itself. Despite stable gold and foreign exchange reserves, the influence of external and internal factors can significantly change the dynamics of the Hryvnia exchange rate. Control by the National Bank and expert forecasts indicate the necessity of monitoring economic indicators that may affect the further development of the currency situation in Ukraine.