Ukraine’s Economic Landscape During Wartime
On November 9, 2026, Ukrainian macroeconomist Mykhailo Kuchar appeared on the “Press Club” channel to discuss the state of Ukraine’s economy in the midst of ongoing conflict. During the interview, Kuchar challenged common misconceptions about Ukraine’s export figures, metallurgical sector, and foreign currency balance, while emphasizing the necessity of government support for businesses and cautioning against raising taxes.
Mykhailo Kuchar, a Business School MIM lecturer and managing partner at Ukraine Economic Outlook, revealed that Ukraine’s exports of goods and services are expected to reach at least $60 billion in 2026. This figure contrasts sharply with earlier estimates by Kolomoisky, who suggested exports were only between $10-15 billion. According to Kuchar, Ukraine’s metallurgical industry is currently operating at roughly 35% of its pre-war production levels. Meanwhile, the country’s imports stand at $130 billion, far exceeding exports.
Kuchar also pointed out that Ukraine maintains a positive balance of payments, benefiting from $11 billion in financial aid. He forecasted that the National Bank of Ukraine’s reserves could grow to between $63 billion and $68 billion by the end of 2026. Stressing the pressure on businesses, he urged tax reductions during wartime, stating:
"The key rule during war is to secure credit wherever possible and reduce taxes across the economy for all sectors. Our businesses are being destroyed daily by the enemy." Mykhailo Kuchar
Supporting Entrepreneurs in Crisis
Kuchar highlighted the severe challenges facing Ukraine’s entrepreneurial landscape due to the destruction of factories, offices, and logistics infrastructure. He warned that not all enterprises will survive until victory, making government intervention vital to sustain as many businesses as possible:
"Let’s be honest: not all our businesses will make it through to victory. But to maximize survival, entrepreneurs must be supported—not burdened—by government and state initiatives." Mykhailo Kuchar
This interview underscores the precarious state of Ukraine’s economy during the war and the critical importance of timely policies to back businesses. With widespread damage to commercial operations, Kuchar’s recommendations for tax relief and financial assistance could prove essential in preserving companies. Proactive government measures are crucial to stabilize the economy and lay the groundwork for recovery once the conflict ends. For international observers, understanding these economic dynamics highlights the resilience of Ukraine’s economy and the challenges it faces amid ongoing hostilities.
As the situation continues to evolve, the impact of ongoing attacks and workforce shortages is becoming increasingly evident, leading to a significant drop in business confidence. For a deeper understanding of how these factors are affecting the economic outlook in Ukraine, see our report on business sentiment in October 2024.