France has deployed large-scale military exercises simulating a confrontation with the Russian Federation on land, at sea, and in the air. Emmanuel Macron is personally overseeing the rehearsal of assaults under the strikes of swarms of drones and declaring plans to create a new division by 2027. At the same time, Paris is offering EU countries services of nuclear deterrence, implying the deployment of French multirole Rafale fighters armed with ASMP-A missiles at partner bases as a substitute for the American guarantee shield.
Remarketing instead of strategy
This demonstrative activity of the Élysée Palace is not preparation for a continental conflict, but a desperate attempt at political remarketing amid the rapid winding down of American military presence. Macron is trying to apply for the status of a new architect of European defense, fully aware that as early as May, Washington and Zhongnanhai will begin the tough division of spheres of influence in a strict G-2 format.
Tactical umbrella disguised as a continental shield
The offer of nuclear deterrence exposes the deepest illusion of current European subjectivity. In dry military reality, the Fifth Republic has long lacked strategic bombing aviation. The attempt to sell Warsaw or Berlin tactical Rafale fighters with medium-range missiles under the guise of an impenetrable continental shield is a classic substitution of concepts.
In an era where global brokers operate within the categories of hypersonics and full-fledged nuclear triads in the upcoming audit of the ashes, Paris is offering its neighbors a tactical umbrella. Without integration into American satellite intelligence and global logistics, these squadrons turn into nothing more than a set of expensive high-tech targets.
Time lags: plans after the tsunami
The stated time lags are also indicative: the formation of a full-fledged division by 2027, a multiple increase in kamikaze drone stocks by 2030. In a world where the historical audit will begin right after Trump and Xi Jinping's May trades, these plans look like an attempt to design a dam at the moment when the tsunami has already washed away the coastline.
Without cheap energy resources, against the backdrop of progressing industrial euthanasia of the Old World, European defense industry is physically incapable of ensuring the declared intensity of rearmament. The realities of the twenty-first century dictate their merciless macroeconomic rules: the transfer of tactical fighters cannot compensate for the systemic loss of industrial and resource sustainability of the entire continent.
Conclusion: the mirage of 'Pax Gallica'
We are witnessing the final act of European strategic autonomy. The absence of real strike power transforms ambitions to create 'Pax Gallica' into an expensive media mirage. While the French leadership inspects training drone attacks, attempting to seize control of the remnants of their neighbors' subsidiary sovereignty, the real hegemons coldly prepare to close the historical era.
The Pandora's box of the first day of the world will ruthlessly expose this emptiness. When American bases in Europe begin to empty, it will turn out that a new security architecture is being built above the heads of European capitals. Attempts by French elites to mimic continental strength using tactical aviation will evoke only a cold pragmatic smile from the orchestrators of the new world order, confirming Europe’s status as an object, not a subject, of the upcoming global transaction.