National Bank of Ukraine Releases Q1 2026 Business Survey Results
The National Bank of Ukraine has published its business outlook survey for the first quarter of 2026. Covering 664 companies across 21 Ukrainian regions, the study reveals growing optimism among firms regarding investment, sales, exports, and the labor market. The transport and communications sector reported the highest level of positive expectations, while companies in construction and trade expressed more moderate views.
Key Survey Findings
According to the survey data, the strongest projected sales growth is expected in:
- the extractive and processing industries,
- the agricultural sector.
Enterprises in energy and water supply are the most optimistic about increasing their export volumes. For the first time in the last four quarterly surveys, businesses recorded positive expectations for construction-related expenditures, signaling an improvement in a sector previously characterized by caution.
Companies that have already attracted foreign investment plan to increase these volumes. However, business leaders have softened their forecasts for future staffing levels for the second consecutive quarter. The energy and water supply sectors plan to create the most new jobs, while agricultural businesses remain the most cautious regarding hiring.
Businesses also report a growing need for borrowed funds, although plans to secure bank loans remain unchanged from previous levels. Assessments regarding the strictness of conditions for accessing bank financing have eased slightly, which could influence the future development of enterprises across various sectors. This survey provides a crucial barometer of private sector sentiment as Ukraine continues its economic recovery.
These results underscore a trend toward improving economic conditions in Ukraine, which may be a consequence of stable policies and state support for recovery following periods of crisis.
Overall, the survey results indicate a gradual restoration of business confidence in Ukraine, with positive expectations for investment, labor market development, and the implementation of new projects.
Increased confidence among entrepreneurs, particularly in vital sectors like energy and agriculture, could help attract new investment and create jobs, which would, in turn, positively impact the country's overall economic development.
As optimism grows among local businesses in Ukraine, it is also essential to examine the role of foreign-owned enterprises in shaping the economic landscape. These companies not only contribute significantly to investment but also influence the overall market dynamics. To gain a deeper understanding of the major players and their origins, explore our detailed analysis of foreign investments in Ukraine.