National Bank of Ukraine Survey Results
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has published the findings of a survey of 664 business leaders regarding their expectations for the hryvnia's exchange rate against the US dollar and the euro over the next 12 months. Conducted in the first quarter of 2026, the participating enterprises represent 21 regions across Ukraine. This regular survey provides a key gauge of business sentiment in the country's evolving economic landscape.
The data shows a shift in expectations compared to the previous survey from the fourth quarter of 2025. At that time, the average forecast for the dollar in one year was 44.27 UAH per USD. In the current survey, the projected rate has increased to 45.00 UAH per USD, indicating a gradual rise in business leaders' expectations for a weaker national currency.
Euro Exchange Rate Forecasts
For the first time, the NBU also included questions about the hryvnia-euro exchange rate in this study. The average expected value for the euro in 12 months is 54.00 UAH per EUR. These adjusted forecasts may reflect changing economic sentiments and the influence of various factors on the currency market.
It is worth noting that the business activity index remains above the 100% threshold. This could point to positive trends within the business environment and optimism among enterprise leaders regarding future economic development. The Ukrainian economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite significant challenges.
The NBU survey results underscore growing business pessimism about the stability of the national currency amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The rising forecasts for both the dollar and euro may signal concerns over potential inflationary pressures or other economic headwinds. However, the business activity index, which remains above 100%, suggests the presence of positive momentum in certain economic sectors, which could help offset some of the negative expectations surrounding the exchange rate.
As businesses adjust their forecasts for the hryvnia's value, understanding the broader market dynamics becomes essential. Insights from experts, such as those in April dollar projections, can shed light on key factors influencing currency fluctuations and help businesses navigate the evolving economic landscape.