Criticism of Demographic Forecasts
Alexander Gladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography at Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences, has criticized projections from British media that the country's population will shrink to 20 million people by 2025. He argues these forecasts are unrealistic, citing his own estimates and UN data that point to different demographic trends.
British media reports referenced data suggesting Ukraine's population would fall from 40 to 20 million between 2014 and 2025. However, Gladun stated that the population in government-controlled territory is currently between 28 and 30 million.
'Even now, in the territory under control, according to many different estimates, Ukraine's population is somewhere in the range of 28-30 million. Therefore, 20 is an unrealistic figure. It is very underestimated, and it is difficult for me to imagine how it was obtained,' he noted.
Demographic Trends and Their Impact
According to the researcher, the average annual population decline in Ukraine during the full-scale war has been about 1.15 million people. Furthermore, the UN reports that the share of young people in Ukraine was 14.8% (7.35 million) in 2000, but is expected to decrease to 9% by 2025 and fall to 6.6% (2.3 million) by 2050.
Additionally, estimates from the National Bank and the Ministry of Economy indicate that Ukraine has lost about 40% of its working-age population due to the war. Approximately 1.7 million Ukrainians who were employed before the full-scale invasion are now abroad, representing over 10% of the pre-war economically active population.
'I am skeptical of this number. Especially when, regarding such publicly available information, they say 'I have a source,' but do not name that source—that raises questions,' summarized Alexander Gladun.He emphasized that the 20 million estimate is far too low and that the real numbers are likely higher. 'I could understand if we were talking about 25-27 million; that could still be debated. 20 is very low,' he added.
Demographic forecasts are crucial for understanding a country's socio-economic situation, particularly in the context of war and migration. Gladun's remarks highlight the need for more careful data analysis and caution in forming projections that can influence policy decisions and public opinion. Accurate demographic assessments are vital for planning Ukraine's future development, as the nation continues to face immense challenges from the ongoing conflict.
While demographic forecasts for Ukraine raise concerns, understanding the implications of these trends is crucial. For instance, a recent analysis discusses how increased birth rates alone won't resolve the challenges posed by an aging population. This highlights the complexity of Ukraine's demographic issues and the need for comprehensive solutions beyond mere population numbers.