Demographic Situation in Ukraine as of February 2026
By February 2026, the population in territories under Ukrainian government control had fallen by roughly one million people, reaching a total of 29 million. This decline is primarily driven by high natural mortality and unfavorable migration trends. Ella Libanova, director of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, noted that natural mortality was the main contributor to the population decrease throughout 2025.
Data shows that a large share of Ukrainians who moved abroad have not returned to their homeland. Out of the many emigrants, fewer than one million have come back to Ukraine, underscoring a discouraging return rate. Libanova has warned of a potential second wave of emigration after the possible lifting of martial law, stating:
“Mostly young women with children have left.” — Ella Libanova
She also emphasized:
“If the family hasn’t fallen apart and the woman has settled there, it’s very likely that instead of women returning here, men will join them abroad.” — Ella Libanova
War’s Impact on Demographics
The war in Ukraine is accelerating demographic aging, as Libanova put it: 'there are people to die, but no one to give birth.' This trend is compounded by families postponing childbirth, further straining population numbers. Despite the conflict, Libanova observes that Ukrainians are showing unprecedented empathy, reflecting deep emotional responses and contemplation.
Amid these negative demographic trends, Libanova noted the emergence of new thinkers in Ukraine who, while perhaps not reaching the level of Myroslav Popovych, are still quite profound and serious. This suggests a certain intellectual breakthrough among Ukrainians in the face of ongoing challenges.
The shrinking population in government-controlled areas poses a serious challenge to the state, affecting economic development and social stability. Issues of high mortality and emigration highlight the urgent need for effective strategies to improve the demographic outlook, such as:
- supporting young families
- creating conditions that encourage emigrants to return
For Ukraine, finding ways to retain and attract people is critical to avoiding further negative trends in the future.
As the population continues to decline, the birth rate in Ukraine has also reached alarming lows, with significant implications for future demographic trends. This situation underscores the challenges facing the country, as the combination of high mortality rates and low birth rates poses a serious threat to population sustainability. Understanding these interconnected factors is crucial for grasping the full picture of Ukraine's demographic crisis.