Ukrainian Banking System's Lending Capacity
According to a National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) survey for the fourth quarter of 2025, the Ukrainian banking system is demonstrating a high level of readiness to extend credit. As the country enters 2026, more than 75% of banks plan to expand their business loan portfolios, while their willingness to finance households has reached its highest point since early 2021. The entire year of 2025 was marked by stable growth in demand for corporate loans, and banks expect this trend to continue into the first quarter of 2026. This data suggests a significant thaw in credit markets following a period of wartime caution.
For three consecutive quarters, there has been an increase in the number of positive decisions on business applications for all types of loans, except for foreign currency loans. Bankers assess the condition of enterprises as average, indicating a degree of stability within the corporate sector. Demand for consumer loans has been rising continuously since mid-2023, and forecasts for growth in household lending volumes have become the most optimistic in the last five years.
Banking Plans and Lending Risks
For January-March 2026, banks plan to make lending terms even more attractive, although standards for housing loans will remain stable. The easing of standards for consumer loans has continued for three consecutive years, but 2025 saw a rise in credit risk. In the first three months of 2026, financial institutions are preparing for a potential increase in liquidity risks and anticipate some deterioration in the quality of household loan portfolios.
Overall, the positive trends in bank lending point to economic recovery and growing confidence among businesses and households about the future. Increased demand for corporate and consumer loans could support economic development; however, it is crucial to monitor credit risks and portfolio quality to avoid potential negative consequences. Amid ongoing global economic challenges, Ukrainian banks must adapt their strategies to ensure the stability and security of lending.