NBU's Forecast for 2026-2028
At the start of 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) released an inflation report containing projections for inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the labor market, and international aid for the 2026-2028 period. These forecasts are crucial for understanding Ukraine's post-war economic trajectory. According to the report, inflation in Ukraine is expected to be 7.5% in 2026, declining to 6% in 2027 and reaching the NBU's target of 5% in 2028.
Key Economic Indicators
Regarding economic recovery, the forecast for real GDP growth is 1.8% in 2026, with an expected increase to 2.8% in 2027 and 3.7% in 2028. This points to a gradual improvement in the country's economic situation.
In the labor market, real wages are projected to grow by 7% in 2026, and by approximately 6% annually in 2027 and 2028. This suggests potential positive changes in employment conditions and household incomes.
Concerning international aid, the volume is forecast to be $51.4 billion USD in 2026. This figure is expected to drop to around $43 billion in 2027 and decrease again to nearly $22 billion USD in 2028. These figures indicate a significant tapering of external financial support in the coming years, which will require careful fiscal management.
Overall, the NBU report presents clear forecasts for inflation, economic growth, labor market changes, and international aid, all of which will shape Ukraine's socio-economic landscape in the near future.
While the NBU's projections point to a gradual improvement in economic indicators, the sharp decline in international aid volumes could pose a major challenge for Ukraine, particularly in funding social programs and infrastructure development. It is vital for the government and the NBU to continue collaborating with international partners to ensure economic stability and support the population during this difficult period.