According to the July 'Inflation Report' of the National Bank of Ukraine, the pace of real wage growth in 2025 decreased to 9.2% year-on-year. This slowdown continues into the second quarter. The labor market is experiencing a tense situation due to a shortage of specialists, and candidates are paying attention not only to the salary level but also to other factors such as remote work and flexible hours.
Although employee salary expectations already match the market situation, companies have to compete for personnel not only by raising salaries but also by improving working conditions.According to the NBU, this may limit further wage growth. In the long term, real incomes will continue to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace of 4-5% annually.
Forecasts for the minimum wage
Forecasts suggest that in 2026, the minimum wage may reach 8688 hryvnias per month, and by 2027 it may increase to 9374 hryvnias per month. The next few years also show a certain growth in incomes. However, population outflows abroad and the slow return of migrants may keep the labor market tense and contribute to an uneven distribution of personnel.
Ukrainians in 2025 observe a slowdown in the growth of real wages, linked to the tense situation in the labor market. This may impact the future development of salary issues in the country, but forecasts for the future indicate a certain growth of incomes in the country in the coming years, although this process may face challenges due to population outflows abroad and the media situation regarding migration.