Ukraine's Central Bank Conducts Major Currency Interventions
In response to significant economic pressures, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) undertook substantial foreign currency market interventions in December 2025 and January 2026. The central bank spent $4.46 billion in December and a further $3.736 billion in January. According to expert Oleksiy Kozirev, the largest outflow of foreign currency from Ukraine in 2026 is expected to be driven by an import surplus exceeding exports. These interventions are part of the NBU's ongoing efforts to manage exchange rate stability during a period of national recovery.
The National Bank of Ukraine possesses substantial reserves of $57 billion, which provide the capacity for such large-scale market operations. For its budget planning, the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers has set an average annual exchange rate target of 45.6-45.7 hryvnias per US dollar and 49.4 hryvnias per euro. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a slightly different average rate of 45.4 hryvnias per dollar for the year.
Oleksiy Kozirev noted that the NBU 'can afford to spend these funds and maintain the hryvnia exchange rate within the corridor it requires.'
These actions demonstrate the National Bank's proactive stance in regulating the currency market amidst ongoing instability. The details of these currency interventions and the exchange rate forecasts were reported by the publication Khvylya.
Outlook for the Currency Market
The scale of the National Bank's spending on interventions underscores its commitment to supporting the hryvnia's stability against economic headwinds. Given the projected rise in imports, further interventions may be necessary to ensure smooth market functioning. While the NBU's high reserves offer considerable financial flexibility, the prolonged use of these funds could raise questions about the long-term sustainability of its currency policy.