How the War in Ukraine Is Changing Course
General Ben Hodges analyzes the shifting trajectory of the war in Ukraine, pointing out that Russia’s immense size has become a liability thanks to Ukraine’s long-range drones. Since the conflict began in February 2022, Russia has suffered heavy casualties. Estimates put total Russian losses at 1.4 million people, including 500,000 killed—450,000 of those on the battlefield.
These fatalities over 4.5 years of conflict are more than four times greater than U.S. losses in all wars since World War II combined. They also exceed Soviet and Russian losses over the past 80 years by a factor of nine. Meanwhile, the amount of territory Russia has captured actually shrank during the first half of 2026.
Ukraine’s Drone Effectiveness
Hodges highlights that Ukrainian drones can strike targets up to 1,000 kilometers away, including oil refineries near Moscow and ships in ports. The Hornet attack drone, for example, has a range of about 160 kilometers. According to him,
“the initiative has shifted to Ukraine”and the Russians
“cannot even concentrate forces for a breakthrough attempt.”In turn, Ukrainians can “precisely hit anyone they want.” Ukrainian forces also demonstrate strong air defense capabilities, intercepting 90-95% of missiles and drones launched by Russia.
Hodges warns of a potential Russian attack on the Baltic states, noting that “a cornered Kremlin might still take a risk with Narva or Daugavpils.” He says the goal of such an attack would be “completely different than in Ukraine,” and “the whole point is to split NATO, to show that the Alliance is not ready to fulfill its obligations under Article 5.”
- The distance from Russian territory to any of the three Baltic capitals is just a few hours by tank.
- In the context of military threats, Sweden and Finland have recently joined NATO, which could strengthen regional security.
Hodges also points to major problems in Russia’s military coordination, stating that “there is no culture of interoperability.” As a result, the situation in Ukraine remains tense, with serious implications for European security.
Now in its fourth year, the war in Ukraine continues to reshape Europe’s geopolitical landscape. Russia’s heavy losses and Ukraine’s growing effectiveness signal a shift in the balance of power. The threat Russia poses to the Baltic states underscores the need to strengthen NATO’s defenses, especially given new regional challenges. This could alter strategic calculations across Europe and spur additional Western initiatives to support allies.
As the dynamics of the conflict evolve, the potential for a broader confrontation in Europe becomes increasingly apparent. The recent analysis highlights concerns over Putin's search for an opportunity to escalate tensions, particularly regarding the Baltic states. Understanding these developments is crucial for grasping the full scope of the situation and the risks that lie ahead.